How might cooperation with China in the field of Artificial Intelligence affect the geostrategic balance in the Middle East?
Photo taken on June 22, 2022 shows the launch ceremony of Chinese tech giant Huawei's largest overseas technology experience center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Xinhua/Wang Haizhou)
The Chinese phrase "luo hou jiu yao ai da,’ translates as “if you are backward, you will take a beating”. This quote is often used in reference to the country’s biggest military setback of the 19th century, the so-called Opium Wars, in which 19000 troops from the British army used steam-powered vessels to overwhelm more than 200,000 troops from China. Widely seen in China as the start of a “century of humiliation” , technological disadvantage was at the root of this landmark defeat.
In this context, China is seeking not to miss out in the competition over the artificial intelligence technology that will have a major impact on military and economic capabilities in years to come. In the Middle East, this has led China to cooperate with all countries in the region, even those who are ostensibly rivals. This includes wealthy states such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, and countries with a skilled workforce and advanced technology infrastructure, such as Israel. In this manner, China is attempting to stand apart from the conflicts in the region, in order to benefit from collaboration with all.
Drivers of Middle East-Sino AI Partnerships
For instance, Saudi Arabia is one of the largest Chinese AI partners in the Middle East, and has attracted massive corporations such as Huawei and Ali Baba to collectively invest close to a billion dollars in computing services between 2022-2027. China and Saudi Arabia also launched a partnership agreement in March 2017 to produce Chinese CH-4 drones, while Riyadh uses Chinese Wing Loong drones that depend on AI Technology. This cooperation has taken place at the same tim as joint Chinese-Iranian collaboration, including a Chinese company called Shenzhen Jiasibo Technology that delivers semiconductors to Iranian AI drones. Meanwhile, total Chinese acquisitions of Israeli AI companies reached around 9 billion USD between 2002 and 2023.
This cooperation has allowed China to improve its AI capability and helped in the international expansion of Chinese corporations, such as Huawei and Ali Baba. Collaboration with the Middle East also improves the proficiency of Chinese AI, as it involves the collection of a huge amount of data.
From the perspective of states in the region, China has a lot to offer. First, China’s digital exports are cheaper than the US. Second, China’s smart apps and surveillance capacities allow governments to increase their domestic control (including repression). Finally, China’s mode of cooperation does not insist on using AI in accordance with values such democracy and respect for human rights. In this sense, AI may deepen the authoritarian character of many states in the region.
Middle Eastern countries have plenty of mutual digital interests with China. One of these is China’s policy of ‘Cyber Sovereignty", which means that every country should have the right to block any digital platform. Middle Eastern states may prefer this approach as they remain concerned with the political and mobilising role of digital platforms (as shown by the 2011 Arab uprisings).
Growing Challenges?
The mutual technological interests between China and Middle East countries mean that governments in the region have refrained from calling on China to decrease its cooperation with competitors. This has left China free to deal with any country in the region. China has used this to its advantage, allowing the country to navigate regional rivalries while benefiting from the status quo and ensuring the continual flow of the region’s oil to the east.
Nevertheless, there is a growing challenge to AI cooperation between China and countries in the region: increasing American pressure to end these technological partnerships. Countries like Israel, the UAE, and Egypt have come under such pressure in recent times. This may lead to deepening digital competition in the Middle East; it also may produce new alliances based on AI cooperation. One of these alliances is the I2U2 group, which was officially launched on July 14, 2022, and which aims to enhance collaboration between Israel, India, USA and the UAE. This group reinforces the logics of Israel-Arab normalisation embodied in the US-led Abraham Accords, and the I2U2 group is likely to become a main player in decoupling AI cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries.
All of this shows how essential it is for researchers to focus on the potential impact of AI on the balance of power in the Middle East, and the role that advanced technology is having in reshaping processes of alliance-making in the region.
* Samir Ramzy is a non-resident researcher at Emirates Policy Center and a PhD candidate at Helwan University with a focus on AI Politics. This blog was developed through discussions at the Mapping Connections Institute, held in Beirut between 27th – 30th May 2024 as part of the ‘Inter-Asia Week’ (Inter-Asia Partnership). The views expressed are the personal perspectives of the writer and not attributable to the Mapping Connections partner institutions.